The business aviation market is returning to normal

The extraordinary years that followed the pandemic distorted almost every reference point owners had. Inventory disappeared, aircraft appreciated instead of depreciating, and buyers were asked to make eight-figure decisions in days rather than weeks. That period is behind us.

What 2023 and 2024 delivered was a correction rather than a downturn. Transaction volumes returned to pre-pandemic levels while values settled comfortably above the 2019 peak — the profile of a market finding equilibrium, not one losing confidence.

What the numbers describe

Jetcraft's 2025 forecast anticipates 11,202 pre-owned transactions over the coming five years, representing $73.9 billion in value, with volume growing at a compound annual rate of 5.8% and value at 2.8%. Read together, those two figures tell the important story: activity is expanding faster than pricing. That is the signature of a healthy market rather than a speculative one.

What it means in practice

For buyers, the return of choice matters more than the return of discounts. Available inventory has rebuilt to roughly 10% of the fleet, which means comparable aircraft can once again be evaluated side by side, and a pre-purchase inspection finding can once again be used as leverage rather than absorbed as a cost of participation.

For sellers, the discipline has shifted from timing to preparation. Aircraft with complete records, current maintenance programmes and realistic pricing continue to transact quickly. Those without still sell — they simply take longer and settle lower.

A balanced market rewards preparation on both sides of the transaction. Nobody is forced to move quickly, which means nobody is forced to move badly.

Our own view is that this environment is the most constructive we have seen in five years. Decisions can be taken on merit — mission, economics and residual value — rather than on scarcity.